The coming years will see Japan pharma regaining its status as innovator driven with Edoxaban for Daiichi Sankyo, Canagliflozin for Mitsubishi Tanabe, and Dolutegravir for Shionogi bringing the good times back for the respective companies in 2013 and carrying enough potential to change global market dynamics in the anticoagulant, diabetes and HIV space resp. We think that the massive ~$45b poured in acquiring innovation by Japanese companies does not justify its value as we find that the key catalysts from Japan are in-house candidates. Changing political scenario in Japan will accelerate the pace of reforms in Japan as recently; the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan came back into power replacing the short tenure of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). LDP was the pioneer initiator of major healthcare reforms with a focus on curbing healthcare costs by means of enhancing generic drugs penetration.
Our report discusses in details about the implications of these changes on Innovator and generic domestic Japanese pharma companies.
Global companies on the other hand are going to see a favorable scenario in coming years – expected launches in 2013-2014 from global companies will increase competition to domestic players mainly in the respiratory, oncology and rheumatoid arthritis therapy areas, and will increase overall market size of Diabetes and Osteoporosis markets.
Going forward, for 2013 –Generic companies will continue to witness a growth story, we think that the recent incentives to promote generic uptake have played out well and at current levels, we do not see meaningful growth until early 2014 when new set of incentives will start playing off. However, in the related space – drug chain stores and biogenerics are two new arenas which we see as next growth drivers – we have analyzed these two novel spaces as well in this report.