Monthly Archives: January 2013

¥200b worth of biologic products is going off patent by 2015 and this value exceeds ~ ¥500b if we include products that will see their patent expiries by 2021 in Japan. There are a number of reasons to believe that follow-on-biologics or biosimilars will not replicate the lethargic growth story of generic – preliminary because the much higher cost of biologic therapy brings significant burden on patients despite relatively low co-pay in Japan – and this will push individuals and…

The coming years will see Japan pharma regaining its status as innovator driven with Edoxaban for Daiichi Sankyo, Canagliflozin for Mitsubishi Tanabe, and Dolutegravir for Shionogi bringing the good times back for the respective companies in 2013 and carrying enough potential to change global market dynamics in the anticoagulant, diabetes and HIV space resp. We think that the massive ~$45b poured in acquiring innovation by Japanese companies does not justify its value as we find that the key catalysts from…

India pharma rode on the wave of bunched up patent expires in the US with many Para IV launches in 2012. In addition, it also benefited from the continuing high teen growth of Indian pharma market. With patent expires in the US dwindling from $30b in 2012 to $10b in 2013 (small molecules), Indian generic companies will now need to focus on complex generics that offer sustainability of earnings. Locally acting drugs and targeted drug delivery products make up for…

Innovative and improved drugs therapies developed through novel target discovery and technology platforms have originated from the backyards of small research focused companies (Rising Stars, RS, non-profitable biotech companies). The universe continues to grow despite the high risk and the wait to transform into a successful profitable Mature Biotech is long. 2012 saw new drugs approvals for unmet needs, first in class drugs for Anti-obesity, Myelofibrosis, cancers and better drug options for HCV, RA, MS, psoriasis, HCC, dyslipidemia etc. We…

Macro Analysis Performance of the Mature Biotech companies recommended by MP Advisors in 2012 -report card is very impressive and we expect the positive sentiments to prevail in 2013 and beyondValuation Multiples and Fundamentals- Drivers of Growth.MP Advisors’ Proprietary Sum-of-The-Parts Valuation and Top Picks for 2013Drug Approvals 2012-15Key Milestones During 2013/14Impact on revenue 2012-2017 from Patent Expiry and Strategies deployed to meet the challenges.Pipeline of Biosimilar mAbsJoint Ventures between innovators and biosimilar playersMerger & Acquisitions Forecast- 2013-2020 In-depth Company Analysis…

Over the next five years, we will witness surge in approval of new drugs that would deliver a major improvement in the standard of care. Therapy areas - Oncology, Diabetes, Ophthalmology HCV, Atrial Fibrillation, Multiple Sclerosis, Dyslipidemia, Alzheimer’s and Melanoma are few select areas where newer therapies that are safer and more efficacious will reach the market. Many of these innovations promise a paradigm shift in the standard of care. The year 2012 has marked the beginning of this trend…