Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013: Japan Pharma

The coming years will see Japan pharma regaining its status as innovator driven with Edoxaban for Daiichi Sankyo, Canagliflozin for Mitsubishi Tanabe, and Dolutegravir for Shionogi bringing the good times back for the respective companies in 2013 and carrying enough potential to change global market dynamics in the anticoagulant, diabetes and HIV space resp. We think that the massive ~$45b poured in acquiring innovation by Japanese companies does not justify its value as we find that the key catalysts from…

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Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013: India Pharma

India pharma rode on the wave of bunched up patent expires in the US with many Para IV launches in 2012. In addition, it also benefited from the continuing high teen growth of Indian pharma market. With patent expires in the US dwindling from $30b in 2012 to $10b in 2013 (small molecules), Indian generic companies will now need to focus on complex generics that offer sustainability of earnings. Locally acting drugs and targeted drug delivery products make up for…

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Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013: Rising Stars

Innovative and improved drugs therapies developed through novel target discovery and technology platforms have originated from the backyards of small research focused companies (Rising Stars, RS, non-profitable biotech companies). The universe continues to grow despite the high risk and the wait to transform into a successful profitable Mature Biotech is long. 2012 saw new drugs approvals for unmet needs, first in class drugs for Anti-obesity, Myelofibrosis, cancers and better drug options for HCV, RA, MS, psoriasis, HCC, dyslipidemia etc. We…

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Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013: Mature Biotech

Macro Analysis Performance of the Mature Biotech companies recommended by MP Advisors in 2012 -report card is very impressive and we expect the positive sentiments to prevail in 2013 and beyondValuation Multiples and Fundamentals- Drivers of Growth.MP Advisors’ Proprietary Sum-of-The-Parts Valuation and Top Picks for 2013Drug Approvals 2012-15Key Milestones During 2013/14Impact on revenue 2012-2017 from Patent Expiry and Strategies deployed to meet the challenges.Pipeline of Biosimilar mAbsJoint Ventures between innovators and biosimilar playersMerger & Acquisitions Forecast- 2013-2020 In-depth Company Analysis…

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Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013: Global Pharma

Over the next five years, we will witness surge in approval of new drugs that would deliver a major improvement in the standard of care. Therapy areas - Oncology, Diabetes, Ophthalmology HCV, Atrial Fibrillation, Multiple Sclerosis, Dyslipidemia, Alzheimer’s and Melanoma are few select areas where newer therapies that are safer and more efficacious will reach the market. Many of these innovations promise a paradigm shift in the standard of care. The year 2012 has marked the beginning of this trend…

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Developing “Better Biologics” through “Evergreening “= High Value Proposition

Investment in biologics based medicine is gaining momentum as these drugs offer targeted therapy and often safer treatment options, higher returns on investment and slower erosion of market share post patent expiry compared to small molecule based drugs. First Generation Monoclonal antibody based drugs are the cornerstone of treatment of major diseases (RA, MS, cancers, AMD, etc). As the patents for these 1st generation Mabs are set to expire from 2014 onwards we focus on companies with novel technology platforms…

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Japan’s New Government Signals Diminishing Outlook for Generics

Proposals on healthcare reforms, discussed at a high level meeting (DPJ’s Chairman with officials of MHLW (Korosho) & Ministry of Finance) in Japan last week, suggest a severe price cut in April 2010 and significant changes in the pricing policy of long-listed drugs. While still early, these developments indicate a difficult path for generic companies in particular and all companies with high long-listed drug exposure in general. This calls for a fresh look at the DPJ-led government: will they continue…

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The Taming of the Swine Flu

Throughout history the unpredictability of the Flu Virus has offered challenges and new opportunities to providers of therapeutic and prophylactic antiviral treatment options. While opportunities during the Spanish Flu of 1918 pandemic were not quantifiable, the impact from the more recent Bird Flu and SARS occurrences can be extrapolated to assess the investment opportunity surrounding the Swine (H1N1) flu pandemic. Tamiflu sales in 2005-2007 amounted to ~$1.7b and we expect 2009-2010 sales to match or exceed this. One notable difference between Bird…

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ADA Takes to the Streets in New Orleans

Enthusiasm for the host of clinical data released at the ongoing American Diabetes Association (ADA, June 5-9) meeting has simmered down as the FDA’s long-term safety concerns will weigh heavily on whether these drugs will actually make it to market. New data on weekly versions of GLP-1’s, Phase II data from Roche’s aleglitazar, and data for a novel class of drugs that aim to treat diabetes by blocking IL-1β were all important developments in the fight against diabetes, but they are unlikely…

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Who’s Making Moves at ASCO 2009?

The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meeting is one of the biggest annual events in the healthcare industry.  This weekend over 30,000 oncologists, educators, industry leaders and investors will gather in balmy Orlando, Florida to review the latest developments in cancer treatment. Our team of analysts conducted a review of the data abstracts to determine their impact on a range of Biotech and Pharma stocks.  Over the next four days we will see full data from a number of…

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